Not in the way we know it

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Substack’s a great place… right now.

• If you write, you probably love it. I do.

• If you read, you probably love it too. So do I.

• And if you’re making money? Even better.

But in essence, Substack is still a startup with investors. Investors want growth. They didn’t cut million-dollar checks to help you find your inner essayist. I wish.

They want you to pull in paying readers, who pull in more readers, who pull in more money. For them.

And if you think they’ll be cool forever with taking 10% and minding their own business, nope. They’ll want more.

That’s business.

The Cracks Are Already There

Substack loves to remind us they’re not Facebook. They’re not Twitter. They don’t tell you what to write. They don’t feed you ads.

Good. For now.

But bills don’t pay themselves. VC money doesn’t refill itself. So when the growth stalls, and it will eventually, the easy promises get tested.

You may see it happen like this:

• More Fees. Least likely to me, but possible. Maybe it’s an extra cut on high earners. Maybe it’s “boosts” to promote your newsletter. Maybe they slap a transaction fee on top of Stripe’s fee. Suddenly, that 10% is 15%.

• Discoverability Tax. The “clean” feed gets filled with “recommended” newsletters, bigger, safer, brand-friendly. And if want your piece of the cake, you’ll pay up.

• More Control. The “hands off” approach turns into a new ToS paragraph here, a new moderation rule there. If you’re controversial, you’ll get squeezed. If you’re small, you’ll get buried. If you’re big, you’ll get courted.

• The Gatekeepers. Big media will (already does) figure out how to come in with branded newsletters with huge lists. Big-name creators. The ones who already have tons of money.

The Selling Point

Substack’s brand is independence. Right now. Although this is mainly a marketing strategy.

The second that independence threatens revenue, it’ll bend. You can call it “pivoting.” You can call it “staying competitive.” Doesn’t matter.

If the founders get a monster buyout offer from someone who is a billionaire, will they say no? Maybe they will. Once. Maybe twice. Maybe even for long. But that will come at a price.

Writers Might Notice

Most writers won’t see it coming.

At first, it’ll be minor. A tiny tweak here. A new “discovery” push there. Maybe a sponsorship feature or a recommended newsletter engine.

Then perhaps an “official partner” badge for select newsletters.

By the time it’s obvious, your audience is locked inside Substack’s walled garden.

Could be. Happened before.

So What Do You Do?

It’s all good now. I love Substack. But I do think about the future. Of any platform I use and like.

So, for my Substackers. Ride it. Write now. Grow. Make money. Utilize your list now. You can take it with you. Copy your list. Back it up. Maybe, even build a second home for your readers. Something like Medium. Or something more independent, more your own (WordPress, Ghost, Quotion*).

Because the real product isn’t Substack. It’s not your posts, either. It’s the readers. And I hate to call them “products” here, but in a way, it’s true, isn’t it?

Substack is nothing without the readers. A writer is nothing without a reader.

We need a good platform. But the platform needs us more.

And if you want to know more about how to gain more independence from Substack, read this: